Saturday, October 17, 2015

Week 6 Fanduel Lineups and Commentary



Fan Duel Lineups for Week 6
www.sparechangepicks.blogspot.com
Week 6 Fanduel    (Originally posted ~ 10pm 10/17 – LASTUPDATE ~TBD)
Posting this late due to the fact I am in the middle of moving and I have had my hands busy!!!
Got back on the plus side in Week 5 as I was able to hit on 3 of 4 of my cash game lineups. Could have been a really big week as I had a lot of good plays in GPP as well but both my lineups had 2 duds in them that killed their value and kept me from cashing. Brady, Bell, Bortles, Brown and Buccaneers were among the B’s who helped me to cash in week 5. Misses in week 5 included Charles Clay and Anthony Dixon another darling of the DFS podcast world for the week that came up small. I was able to advance easily in the Fanduel Survivor tourney so I will head to round 3 this week. I did run my number 1 cash lineup in multiple contests which paid dividends as I have hit that lineup 4 of 5 weeks and will continue that strategy for rest of year.

On a side note I felt so good about that lineup I went ahead and deposited $25 at Draft Kings, of course I had to modify a bit as there is a flex and no kicker but I was able to cash on the Millionaire Maker so now I have $55 in the bank on Draft Kings. I intend to run a weekly $10 cash game based on my top lineup there to see if I can grow that bankroll a bit the rest of season and if things go well maybe enter a couple of the Millionaire events later this season.

Enough about week 5 let’s queue up the lineups for week 6 – and in all honesty I did not see a lot that really jumped off the page for some reason so I am going to start only 4 lineups this week including a Thursday –Monday lineup which is not my norm so by the time you read this a couple of my guys will already be in action in a GPP.

As usual you can find my detailed lineups from previous weeks and my upcoming lineups and contest summaries at the link below in google docs.

Week 6 Lineups
QB – Going back to the well with Brady and Palmer in week 6.  I am expecting to see 40% ownership for Brady at Indy here, but I can‘t get away from him just to avoid the crowd and I see no reason to do so in cash games.  His price has inched up to $9000 but I see no reason he can’t produce well into the 20’s this week.   Carson remains a bargain in my eyes if a team can stay close with the Cardinals his numbers would be even better.  In my big $2 GPP I am stacking Joe Flacco with Kamar Aiken that one is going to be locked on Thursday as I am starting a couple players in the Thursday night game.

 RB – Matt Forte heads up my top lineup he face what has been a soft Detroit Def this year even though he is on the road the Chicago offense should go through him with all the WR’s banged up for Chicago.  In another lineup I have Eddie Lacy paired with Hyde.  Hard to believe that there are 10 RBs with a higher price tag than Lacy at home against one of the worst run defenses in the league.  The Packers are generally very efficient at home so hopefully Rodgers does his thing and mixes in a lot of the running game.   As mentioned I am teaming Dion Lewis with Forte in my A lineup  Patriots have rolled the Colts in the last 4 meeting with huge numbers at RB and San Fran waits at home for Baltimore to come across country.  My other lineup has Brady at QB with a RB tandem of Peterson and Antonio Allen.  Peterson coming off a bye should be a lock for a big game vs. a reeling KC team and Tennessee has dominated time of possession this year, with Miami sputtering on offense I am hoping Allen gets a majority of the work.  My GPP lineup has maybe the strongest pair of the week with Leveon and Devonta spearheading that gound attack.

WR – As odd as this may have sounded in the pre season the NY Jets and Jacksonville Jags receivers are dominating my lineups this week – Decker appears in 2 of the 3 with Marshall in the other.  Decker, Robinson and Randall are the starting trio in my A lineup and going with a set of Hurns, Decker and Boldin, who should be playing with a chip on his shoulder against his old Ravens team in another.  My final lineup has Marshall with Sanders and the Jags wideout Allen Robinson for a second time this week.  My GPP trio is Marshall, Fitzgerald and Kamar Aiken, even if Smith does play I like him to draw coverage which could lead to a nice day for the affordably priced Aiken.

 TE – I am heavily diversified at TE this week – only 1 share of Gronk.  I have Gates who looked good right out of the gate last week.  I have Crockett Gilmore who looks to be returning from injury this week and Jacob Tamme who I hope continues to see a lot of volume with the Atlanta wide outs banged up on a short week.

K – My Kickers this week are Phil Dawson at home vs the Ravens – the Ravens tend to be a bend but don’t break defense and traveling across country I am hoping they are very “bendy”.  Nick Folk – I expect the Jets to move the ball vs Washington – they can tend to have a bad play in any given drive which could put Folk on the field 2 or 3 times.  Robbie Gould appears in my other two lineups same theory here especially if Alshon can’t go or is limited if Forte does not get them into the endzone Gould should get a few opportunities to score.

D – As I mentioned every week and I will probably mention more weeks that not -  I look for a good defense AT HOME, with a good matchup ( I am just leaving this opening line in my defense slot as it applies 90% of the time).  Jets at home with Sheldon Richardson in 2 of my lineups.  Titans at home vs Miami and taking the Bengals on the road but they are facing a banged up Bills team that is far from an offensive juggernaut and with EJ Manuel at the controls should be even less formidable.
So in summary as usual see the grids below with my lineups.

As of Saturday 10/17 the week 6 lineups are as follows:

Week 6 Cash Games lineups (Any changes from the opening lineup in red)
Position
Player
Price
QB
Carson Palmer
 $         8,000
RB
Matt Forte
 $         8,400
RB
Dion Lewis
 $         7,200
WR
Randall Cobb
 $         8,100
WR
Allen Robinson
 $         6,700
WR
Eric Decker
 $         6,100
TE
Antonio Gates
 $         5,500
K
Nick Folk
 $         4,700
D
Jets Def
 $         4,800
Total

 $      59,500

QB
Tom Brady
 $         9,000
RB
Adrian Peterson
 $         8,900
RB
Antonio Allen
 $         5,400
WR
Allen Hurns
 $         6,500
WR
Anquan Boldin
 $         6,500
WR
Eric Decker
 $         6,100
TE
Rob Gronkoswki
 $         8,200
K
Phil Dawson
 $         4,600
D
Jets Def
 $         4,800
Total

 $      60,000

QB
Tom Brady
 $         9,000
RB
Eddie Lacy
 $         7,300
RB
Carlos Hyde
 $         7,000
WR
Emmanuel Sanders
 $         7,900
WR
Brandon Marshall
 $         8,000
WR
Allen Robinson
 $         6,700
TE
Crockett Gilmore
 $         4,900
K
Robbie Gould
 $         4,500
D
Bengals Def
 $         4,700
Total

 $      60,000

Week 6 GPP  lineup (Any changes  from the opening will be in red)
QB
Joe Flacco
 $         7,800
RB
Leveon Bell
 $         9,000
RB
Devota Freeman
 $         8,000
WR
Kamar Aiken
 $         6,000
WR
Brandon Marshall
 $         8,000
WR
Larry Fitzgerald
 $         7,500
TE
Jacob Tamme
 $         5,100
K
Robbie Gould
 $         4,500
D
Titans Def
 $         4,100
Total

 $      60,000

2015 Quick Summary
Game Type
#entries this week
Entry/Wins Last week
#entries YTD
Wins YTD
$10 50/50  & double up
1
1/1
5
4
$5 50/50  & double up
3
3/1
15
6
Totals YTD


20
10





$5 GPP Tournaments
0
1/0
5
0
$2 GPP Tournaments
1
1/1
4
2
Totals YTD


9
2

(note I am also entered in a multiple week $5 survivor tourney advancing to round 2 in week 5)  (note 2 -  I entered my Top Lineup in the Free win a Porshe 911 contest as well)
Detailed lineups and results history can be found here in spreadsheet form: